According to regular participants in the \u201cEU Grand Council,\u201d the atmosphere here is much calmer than in public parliamentary sessions, and Orb\u00e1n often shares his more far-reaching visions. Direkt36 learned about the details of the 2023 spring meeting from sources with close knowledge of the details of the discussion. We asked Orb\u00e1n’s press chief several questions to confirm what the prime minister said but have not received any answers.<\/p>\n
US masterplan<\/strong><\/h3>\nLast year, the European Council summit took place on March 23, and it did not yet include the start of Ukraine’s accession to the EU on its official agenda. Orb\u00e1n, however, did dive into the issue at this closed session of the Hungarian parliament held a few days earlier, on March 20.<\/p>\n
According to sources familiar with the details of the meeting, the prime minister told the participants that, according to intelligence reports, the United States had promised Ukraine that EU accession talks with the war-torn country would start in 2023. \u201cZelensky will go into the presidential election campaign with the message that negotiations with Ukraine have begun,\u201d Orb\u00e1n said, suggesting that this would strengthen Zelensky’s domestic political position.<\/p>\n
(Orb\u00e1n did not mention it, but Ukraine’s integration process has a history. The country was granted candidate status in June 2022, after applying for membership just days after the Russian invasion began. At the beginning of 2023, leading Ukrainian politicians expected that the accession negotiations could start soon. Although EU leaders voted to open negotiations late last year, it now looks likely that Ukraine’s presidential elections will not take place in spring 2024 due to the war.)<\/p>\n
However, Orb\u00e1n said that things would not go so smoothly, referring to the need for unanimity to approve the start of accession negotiations and that the Hungarian government can impose its will in certain issues. The prime minister said they would insist that Ukraine restore the rights that the Hungarian minority enjoyed before 2015. Orb\u00e1n also said that this was a position that was easy to represent in public, a principle similar to \u201cwhite men eat with forks and knives\u201d (a Hungarian saying which means that something is evident).<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n also added that the Hungarian government would accept no new Ukrainian proposals in the field of minority rights, as it is unpredictable how they would actually work in practice. (The reference to the pre-2015 situation in minority rights in Ukraine has been part of the Hungarian government\u2019s communication for some time, and foreign minister P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 posted about it<\/a> on Facebook a few days after the parliamentary council meeting.)<\/p>\nOrb\u00e1n, however, indicated that while he believes Hungary can achieve some results, it would not be able to put up any substantial obstacles to Ukraine’s accession. He said that, despite his objections, Ukraine\u2019s EU membership would be \u201cpushed through relatively quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n
He then turned to the geopolitical risks he sees in Ukraine\u2019s EU membership. Orb\u00e1n said that Ukraine’s accession would create such a \u201ccenter of power\u201d within the EU which would be dominated by the United States, militarily, politically as well as economically. This north-central European zone would include, according to Orb\u00e1n, the three Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine \u2013 which has been deprived of parts of its territory by Russia \u2013, and, to a lesser extent, Romania (countries which, fearing Russia, maintain closer ties with the US).<\/p>\n
According to the prime minister, the importance of this north-central European zone is also shown by the fact that the US is now deploying weapons only in Poland and Ukraine, instead of Western Europe. \u201cWe will see about Belarus, one or two colorful revolutions could still happen there,\u201d Orb\u00e1n said, referring to the series of protests that broke out in several post-Soviet countries earlier \u2013 and which the Russians say were supported by the US. According to Orb\u00e1n, a possible Belarusian revolution would make this US-dominated European zone even larger.<\/p>\n
The prime minister also went on to consider how large the population of this bloc would be. Orb\u00e1n gave concrete figures, calculating that the population of the Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine would exceed that of France so that this zone would be more influential than France. Orb\u00e1n also said that he had shared this theory with Emmanuel Macron, but it was \u201cnot quite clear\u201d to the French president \u201chow should it all be added up\u201d (meaning the population of these countries).<\/p>\n
![\"Orb\u00e1n](\"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Marcon_01-800x449.jpeg\")
Orb\u00e1n and Macron \u2013 Source: Orb\u00e1n\/Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n
In this 2023 closed session, Orb\u00e1n also spoke about the figures he had shared with Macron. In the case of Ukraine\u2019s future population, he put it at 20 million, suggesting that the population of the country, which was 32 million before the war, would decrease by that much because of the Russian invasion (Orb\u00e1n\u2019s own calculation slightly underestimated the French population and overestimated the number of Poles, because, if official figures are taken into account, Poland, with 38 million, the Baltic states, with 6.1 million, and Ukraine, with 20 million, together do not exceed France\u2019s population of 68 million).<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n claimed that this bloc would be significant economically too. He expected that this would be due, among other things, to the inflow of US investments and resources for the reconstruction of Ukraine. All this, he said, will lead to \u201cthis new power center\u201d being \u201ceconomically stronger than Germany.\u201d Orb\u00e1n believed that this strategy, which he calls \u201cAmerican-Polish\u201d strategy, would change the balance of power within the EU and reduce the influence of the currently dominant German-French axis.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe had an offer to the good French and Germans, who did not accept it,” Orb\u00e1n said of his earlier attempts to maintain the status quo within the EU. To this end, he proposed that the Franco-German axis should be complemented by the Visegr\u00e1d Four (i.e. the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), which, Orb\u00e1n argued, could have consolidated the EU’s eastern half, had they been more closely involved in EU decision-making. According to Orb\u00e1n, his proposal did not get support because Germany saw the Visegr\u00e1d group as a rival, and tried to break it up instead. According to the prime minister’s logic, this is why, among other things, rule of law proceedings were launched against Poland. Orb\u00e1n concluded that the Germans and the French have caused trouble for themselves, and instead of \u201cstrengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy\u201d they have offered Central Europe up for grabs to the Americans.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n\u2019s speech also revealed that this shift of power bothers him because it interferes with his own strategic vision. The prime minister said that he believes that the center of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the West to Asia, including China, mainly for demographic reasons. Orb\u00e1n said he did not think it was right that \u201cthe Americans are reacting to this by splitting the world economy in two.\u201d He said that in this process, we should not choose between the Western and Eastern hemispheres, but instead “we should be able to develop all kinds of relations with everyone in accordance with our own interests.\u201d He said that Hungary should take advantage of the benefits of both Western and Eastern relations in the next decade.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n listed a number of Eastern countries that he considered important for the implementation of this \u201cHungarian strategy.\u201d He mentioned China, for example. He said that the Hungarian government also wants to deepen relations with India, but that they have not yet found a way to do so. He also added that, after the end of the war, \u201csome kind of relationship with the Russians will have to be established within the new security framework.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prime minister has already shared some of these ideas publicly. For example, he said similar things in a speech to the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry<\/a> a few days before this parliamentary meeting in spring 2023. Here, however, Orb\u00e1n presented his theory much more briefly, and his comments on the role of the United States were limited, so they received less attention.<\/p>\nMoney would flow into US pockets<\/strong><\/h3>\nThe Hungarian government started to criticize launching Ukraine’s EU accession talks more vehemently after the European Commission made an official proposal at the beginning of November 2023. The Hungarian government reacted to the announcement by following the agenda outlined by Orb\u00e1n, referring to minority rights as an obstacle. Later that day, P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 said in a Facebook video that Ukraine was not fit for EU membership. \u201cWe Hungarians continue to expect Ukraine to return to the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia all the rights they possessed in 2015,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, however, Ukraine also took action. Early December last year, several laws necessary for the start of accession were adopted, including one on minority rights. The new law made it possible to teach in official EU languages, including Hungarian, in Ukrainian schools. In response, the Hungarian government said that it would evaluate the new law, but that it was still a long way from the restoration of the pre-2015 minority rights.<\/p>\n
![\"Orb\u00e1n](\"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/EU-csu\u0301cs_02-800x444.jpeg\")
Orb\u00e1n and leaders of EU \u2013 Source: Orb\u00e1n\/Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n
In the period that followed, references to minority rights were scaled back in government communication. Orb\u00e1n also started to use different arguments. One of them was that Ukraine was not ready for accession. \u201cUkraine is known as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. This is a joke!\u201d he told the French weekly Le Point last December.<\/p>\n
Among the prime minister\u2019s counterarguments was that huge amounts of money would be spent on the reconstruction of Ukraine. For example, he told the Hungarian parliament on December 13 last year that Ukraine would receive ten times more in EU agricultural subsidies than Hungary was entitled to. \u201cMoreover, a substantial part of this money would actually go into the pockets of the Americans, who have bought into the Ukrainian agricultural sector up to their necks,\u201d he said. He added that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that 90 percent of the money the US sends to Ukraine comes back to the US and helps create jobs and growth on US soil.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n, however, indicated that while he believes Hungary can achieve some results, it would not be able to put up any substantial obstacles to Ukraine’s accession. He said that, despite his objections, Ukraine\u2019s EU membership would be \u201cpushed through relatively quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n
He then turned to the geopolitical risks he sees in Ukraine\u2019s EU membership. Orb\u00e1n said that Ukraine’s accession would create such a \u201ccenter of power\u201d within the EU which would be dominated by the United States, militarily, politically as well as economically. This north-central European zone would include, according to Orb\u00e1n, the three Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine \u2013 which has been deprived of parts of its territory by Russia \u2013, and, to a lesser extent, Romania (countries which, fearing Russia, maintain closer ties with the US).<\/p>\n
According to the prime minister, the importance of this north-central European zone is also shown by the fact that the US is now deploying weapons only in Poland and Ukraine, instead of Western Europe. \u201cWe will see about Belarus, one or two colorful revolutions could still happen there,\u201d Orb\u00e1n said, referring to the series of protests that broke out in several post-Soviet countries earlier \u2013 and which the Russians say were supported by the US. According to Orb\u00e1n, a possible Belarusian revolution would make this US-dominated European zone even larger.<\/p>\n
The prime minister also went on to consider how large the population of this bloc would be. Orb\u00e1n gave concrete figures, calculating that the population of the Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine would exceed that of France so that this zone would be more influential than France. Orb\u00e1n also said that he had shared this theory with Emmanuel Macron, but it was \u201cnot quite clear\u201d to the French president \u201chow should it all be added up\u201d (meaning the population of these countries).<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n and Macron \u2013 Source: Orb\u00e1n\/Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n
In this 2023 closed session, Orb\u00e1n also spoke about the figures he had shared with Macron. In the case of Ukraine\u2019s future population, he put it at 20 million, suggesting that the population of the country, which was 32 million before the war, would decrease by that much because of the Russian invasion (Orb\u00e1n\u2019s own calculation slightly underestimated the French population and overestimated the number of Poles, because, if official figures are taken into account, Poland, with 38 million, the Baltic states, with 6.1 million, and Ukraine, with 20 million, together do not exceed France\u2019s population of 68 million).<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n claimed that this bloc would be significant economically too. He expected that this would be due, among other things, to the inflow of US investments and resources for the reconstruction of Ukraine. All this, he said, will lead to \u201cthis new power center\u201d being \u201ceconomically stronger than Germany.\u201d Orb\u00e1n believed that this strategy, which he calls \u201cAmerican-Polish\u201d strategy, would change the balance of power within the EU and reduce the influence of the currently dominant German-French axis.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe had an offer to the good French and Germans, who did not accept it,” Orb\u00e1n said of his earlier attempts to maintain the status quo within the EU. To this end, he proposed that the Franco-German axis should be complemented by the Visegr\u00e1d Four (i.e. the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), which, Orb\u00e1n argued, could have consolidated the EU’s eastern half, had they been more closely involved in EU decision-making. According to Orb\u00e1n, his proposal did not get support because Germany saw the Visegr\u00e1d group as a rival, and tried to break it up instead. According to the prime minister’s logic, this is why, among other things, rule of law proceedings were launched against Poland. Orb\u00e1n concluded that the Germans and the French have caused trouble for themselves, and instead of \u201cstrengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy\u201d they have offered Central Europe up for grabs to the Americans.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n\u2019s speech also revealed that this shift of power bothers him because it interferes with his own strategic vision. The prime minister said that he believes that the center of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the West to Asia, including China, mainly for demographic reasons. Orb\u00e1n said he did not think it was right that \u201cthe Americans are reacting to this by splitting the world economy in two.\u201d He said that in this process, we should not choose between the Western and Eastern hemispheres, but instead “we should be able to develop all kinds of relations with everyone in accordance with our own interests.\u201d He said that Hungary should take advantage of the benefits of both Western and Eastern relations in the next decade.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n listed a number of Eastern countries that he considered important for the implementation of this \u201cHungarian strategy.\u201d He mentioned China, for example. He said that the Hungarian government also wants to deepen relations with India, but that they have not yet found a way to do so. He also added that, after the end of the war, \u201csome kind of relationship with the Russians will have to be established within the new security framework.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prime minister has already shared some of these ideas publicly. For example, he said similar things in a speech to the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry<\/a> a few days before this parliamentary meeting in spring 2023. Here, however, Orb\u00e1n presented his theory much more briefly, and his comments on the role of the United States were limited, so they received less attention.<\/p>\n The Hungarian government started to criticize launching Ukraine’s EU accession talks more vehemently after the European Commission made an official proposal at the beginning of November 2023. The Hungarian government reacted to the announcement by following the agenda outlined by Orb\u00e1n, referring to minority rights as an obstacle. Later that day, P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 said in a Facebook video that Ukraine was not fit for EU membership. \u201cWe Hungarians continue to expect Ukraine to return to the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia all the rights they possessed in 2015,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In the meantime, however, Ukraine also took action. Early December last year, several laws necessary for the start of accession were adopted, including one on minority rights. The new law made it possible to teach in official EU languages, including Hungarian, in Ukrainian schools. In response, the Hungarian government said that it would evaluate the new law, but that it was still a long way from the restoration of the pre-2015 minority rights.<\/p>\n Orb\u00e1n and leaders of EU \u2013 Source: Orb\u00e1n\/Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n In the period that followed, references to minority rights were scaled back in government communication. Orb\u00e1n also started to use different arguments. One of them was that Ukraine was not ready for accession. \u201cUkraine is known as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. This is a joke!\u201d he told the French weekly Le Point last December.<\/p>\n Among the prime minister\u2019s counterarguments was that huge amounts of money would be spent on the reconstruction of Ukraine. For example, he told the Hungarian parliament on December 13 last year that Ukraine would receive ten times more in EU agricultural subsidies than Hungary was entitled to. \u201cMoreover, a substantial part of this money would actually go into the pockets of the Americans, who have bought into the Ukrainian agricultural sector up to their necks,\u201d he said. He added that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that 90 percent of the money the US sends to Ukraine comes back to the US and helps create jobs and growth on US soil.<\/p>\nMoney would flow into US pockets<\/strong><\/h3>\n