Several people raised their eyebrows when Orb\u00e1n began talking about the need for those present to reconsider their role as constituency chairpersons in the future. This is one of the most important positions in the party; typically, constituency chairpersons also serve as individual candidates in their own constituency. After Orb\u00e1n raised this issue, he emphasized that being in the opposition would mean \u201cless room to maneuver.\u201d Therefore, anyone who decides to remain a constituency district chairperson would have to solve this using their own resources. Several of the politicians gasped at this, unable to understand why, after 16 years in power, the party did not have sufficient resources for this.<\/p>\n
The bad mood was exacerbated by campaign manager Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2019s presentation, in which he focused on the positives even two days after the crushing defeat. He said that with the number of votes cast for Fidesz, they could have won if voter turnout hadn\u2019t been so high. Many were truly shocked that the campaign manager praised everyone, even the government-close pollsters. \u201cThey performed well too, they just didn\u2019t get the result right,\u201d said Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n, according to one attendee, referring to the fact that pollsters close to Fidesz consistently showed the party in the lead in their public surveys. Several people reacted to this with mocking laughter.<\/p>\n
Following this, party director G\u00e1bor Kubatov attempted to restore order in the room with his characteristic soft-spoken manner. Several attendees found it somewhat threatening when Kubatov spoke about everyone taking a step back and reflecting on their own mistakes. He then added: anyone who takes on the constituency presidency even in opposition must continue to work hard and carry out their duties. He also mentioned that under the Tisza government, Fidesz members could face investigations, so he urged them to delete sensitive information from their data storage devices.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n and his team wanted to end the meeting there, indicating that the individual candidates could express their opinions during another occasion. However, there were a few who did not agree with this and asked to speak. Among them was S\u00e1ndor Font from B\u00e1cs-Kiskun County, who, claiming to have a sore throat, did not want to speak while standing among the rows of chairs, so he walked over to the microphone next to the party leadership\u2019s table. There, for several minutes, he spoke about the need for deeper self-reflection and self-criticism. \u201cIt was clear from Orb\u00e1n\u2019s face that he wasn\u2019t pleased with Font\u2019s words,\u201d said one of those present.<\/p>\n
Afterward, Orsolya Ferencz, the party\u2019s candidate for the 8th district in Budapest, also took the microphone. Since the politician made an unusually sharp remark after the election criticizing Fidesz\u2019s internal moral state, her comments drew serious attention. Ferencz spoke about how they had suffered a historic defeat.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s why, those taking a seat in the parliament would be sitting in hell,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
she said, according to one participant, referring to the fact that Tisza would put the small Fidesz faction under enormous pressure. For this reason, she believed that the faction should consist exclusively of politicians who provide Tisza with little potential targets for attack.<\/p>\n
Ferencz directed serious criticism at the party leadership sitting next to her. \u201cLooking at Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n, she said she appreciated his theoretical thoughts, but nobody was interested in them,\u201d said one participant, who added that Ferencz advised the campaign manager to look at the results instead. To Kubatov, she said she appreciated what he had done for the party so far, but he \u201cshouldn\u2019t threaten anyone.\u201d Still addressing Orb\u00e1n\u2019s team, she added: those who caused the defeat should not be the ones who assessed it. The politician received loud applause at the end of her speech.<\/p>\n
Alexandra Szentkir\u00e1lyi, who played a leading role in managing the campaign, felt she couldn\u2019t let what was said go unanswered. Addressing Ferencz, she said that she would “proudly take her seat in parliamentary hell.” She then added that, again referring to Ferencz, the defeat was partly due to the fact that the individual candidates had not done their jobs properly. Many in the room reacted with disapproval to these comments.<\/p>\n
Following Szentkir\u00e1lyi, others also spoke up, either expressing opinions similar to Ferencz\u2019s or criticizing her. After further comments, the increasingly disorganized meeting, which had lasted about two and a half hours, was adjourned.<\/p>\n
However, the tension did not ease in the days that followed. On April 16\u201317, under the leadership of party director G\u00e1bor Kubatov, election cmmittee chairman L\u00e1szl\u00f3 K\u00f6v\u00e9r, chairman of the Fidesz ally KDNP party Zsolt Semj\u00e9n, and minister J\u00e1nos L\u00e1z\u00e1r, discussions took place in which individual candidates were asked separately whether they would accept the position of leading their constituencies. Several of these meetings took place in a tense atmosphere. According to multiple sources, party leadership representatives rejected criticism that they were unwilling to learn from the defeat. According to several participants, on one occasion L\u00e1szl\u00f3 K\u00f6v\u00e9r even refused to shake the hand of a Fidesz member who voiced such criticism.<\/p>\n
The Fidesz party is currently undergoing one of the most serious crises in its history, and it remains divided on the question of what Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s role should be in the future. Several high-ranking politicians believe Orb\u00e1n must step down from the party\u2019s leadership, as Fidesz has been so morally crippled that a recovery is hopeless with him at the helm. At the same time, they don\u2019t speak about this publicly, being afraid of Orb\u00e1n as well as his voter base.<\/p>\n
During the election campaign, Orb\u00e1n was still confident, and the worst-case scenario he could imagine was that even if he lost the election, he would be able to return to power relatively quickly. According to a source close to him, the prime minister was still saying last summer that, in the event of an election defeat, he would watch the summer Football World Cup, and by fall a political climate favorable to him would emerge. He believed that P\u00e9ter Magyar was so inexperienced that, unlike him, he would be unable to govern. Orb\u00e1n did not, however, anticipate that the Tisza Party would ultimately secure a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which would allow it to begin dismantling the power structures of the Orb\u00e1n era.<\/p>\n
Direkt36 spoke with nearly twenty sources\u2014who have insight into the party\u2019s operations but requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic\u2014to investigate what happened within Fidesz in the year leading up to the election. These conversations revealed that Fidesz was not particularly interested in the social processes that led to Tisza\u2019s rise. They attributed it to technological factors, such as the fact that P\u00e9ter Magyar was more adept at managing Facebook than they were. Even though it became obvious to them that their attempts to take over social media were not working, they did not make changes for reasons of power and money. After their multi-billion-forint spending spree proved ineffective, they further escalated the tense relationship with Ukraine for party political reasons. And even until the very last moment, they believed they had a chance to remain in power.<\/p>\n
Responding to Direkt36 inquiry, Fidesz communication director Bertalan Havasi wrote that Orb\u00e1n reacted \u201csympathetically\u201d to Ferencz\u2019s criticism, and he was S\u00e1ndor Font\u2019s \u201cold friend and admirer.\u201d \u00a0He called it \u201cnonsense\u201d that Orb\u00e1n considered his quick return to power in case of an election defeat the worst-case scenario. \u00a0Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n and G\u00e1bor Kubatov did not respond to our questions.<\/p>\n
I. Frustration<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nViktor Orb\u00e1n and P\u00e9ter Magyar in the European Parliament in 2024. Source: Philippe Buissin \/ EP<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
By early 2025, the team of 15\u201320 people working on the second floor of Fidesz\u2019s headquarters on Lendvay Street in central Budapest had become increasingly frustrated. Sitting in an open space office separated by a large glass wall, they were reviewing P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019s public statements but found nothing they could use against the politician.<\/p>\n
This was despite the fact that the team members had experience in this kind of work.<\/p>\n
They formed Fidesz\u2019s central digital team with the task to collect\u2014or \u201cscrape\u201d\u2014politically relevant information appearing on social media or other public forums. The aim was to extract details that could be used to the political advantage of Fidesz.<\/p>\n
The team was led by Magor Duk\u00e1sz, a key behind-the-scenes figure in Fidesz campaigns who had served as the party\u2019s digital director for years. Duk\u00e1sz\u2019s name appeared repeatedly in the Hungarian press after it emerged that one of his companies operated in the same office building as Megafon, which finances social media influencers close to the government.<\/p>\n
During the 2022 election campaign, for example, the digital team reviewed the social media posts of Budapest mayor Gergely Kar\u00e1csony and monitored his public statements. Then, after P\u00e9ter M\u00e1rki-Zay, the mayor of H\u00f3dmez\u0151v\u00e1s\u00e1rhely, won the opposition primary in the fall of 2021, they began to focus on him. \u201cOnce they had the posts and materials, they identified the parts they thought were vulnerable and usable,\u201d said the source, who added that all of this went through various filters, and Fidesz\u2019s communications team only began using them afterward.<\/p>\n
The digital team also quickly seized on M\u00e1rki-Zay\u2019s interview excerpt from February 2022, a few days before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, in which the politician said that if elected, he would even provide military aid to Ukraine in accordance with a possible NATO\u2019s decision. Relying on this, Fidesz\u2019s propaganda machine began repeating the claim that the opposition would drag Hungary into war. With the help of the digital team, among others, Fidesz ultimately secured another two-thirds victory in 2022.<\/p>\n
The team\u2019s next major target was P\u00e9ter Magyar, who, in a February 2024 interview with the independent Youtube channel Partiz\u00e1n, harshly criticized the Orb\u00e1n government, from which he had long benefited. \u201cAfter his March 15 demonstration, it was clear that he had exploded into social media,\u201d \u2014said the source about Magyar\u2019s first major event, held in early 2024.<\/p>\n
Fidesz\u2019s digital team began scrutinizing Magyar\u2019s statements in early April 2024. \u201cThey monitored how much he contradicted the Fidesz narrative,\u201d said the source. In doing so, they analyzed, for example, whether Magyar said anything about the war or the government\u2019s family policy measures that the ruling party could twist and use against him. However, despite their best efforts, they found nothing of the sort.<\/p>\n
With his travels across the country, countless speeches, and lengthy interviews, Magyar posed an ever-greater challenge to the Fidesz team watching him with eagle eyes.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was an overwhelming onslaught,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
said the source, referring to periods when the staff had to track Magyar\u2019s speeches\u2014which often lasted for hours and stretched into the evening\u2014on a daily basis. According to one source familiar with the team\u2019s work, this represented a workload two to three times greater than what was typical during the M\u00e1rki-Zay campaign.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in early 2025, the Orb\u00e1n government prepared a trap for Magyar and his Tisza Party, which had become Fidesz\u2019s primary challenger. At that time, Viktor Orb\u00e1n brought up several ideologically divisive issues that outraged liberal voters. These included banning the Pride parade and cracking down on civil society groups and media outlets. The goal was to draw Magyar into the ensuing controversies. Fidesz believed that if they could get Magyar on the same platform with liberal, left-wing voters, they could accuse him of being part of the network of George Soros, whom they portrayed as an enemy in their propaganda.<\/p>\n
Magyar, however, dismissed these topics as irrelevant and did not engage in the debates surrounding them. Duk\u00e1sz, who heads the digital team, thus informed his superiors\u2014Andr\u00e1s Gy\u00fcrk, Fidesz\u2019s campaign manager, and Antal Rog\u00e1n, cabinet minister overseeing government communications\u2014that they couldn\u2019t find any leverage against Magyar.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Gy\u00fcrk, who has been directing Fidesz\u2019s campaigns since 2010, faced another problem. It was still unclear what the so called \u201c80-20\u201d issue should be\u2014the one that would allow Fidesz, as it was preparing for the 2026 election, to secure the support of 80 percent of voters while pushing the opposition into the remaining 20 percent. Fidesz had, in fact, won the previous elections by following such a strategy. In 2010, \u201cthe past eight years\u201d (of the previous Socialist-Liberal governments) was the central theme; in 2014 utility bill cuts; in 2018 migration; and in 2022 Russia’s war full-scale invasion against Ukraine.<\/p>\n
According to government sources, this led to an increasingly tense relationship between Orb\u00e1n and Gy\u00fcrk in the spring of 2025. \u201cThe prime minister blamed the campaign manager for failing to handle the challenge posed by the Tisza party and for failing to push Magyar to the left block,\u201d said a high-ranking official in the Orb\u00e1n government.<\/p>\n
By this time, it was evident that the government machinery, working like a steamroller in the past, was facing serious problems. Fearing a loss of popularity, in early June 2025 they removed from the parliamentary agenda the so-called \u201ctransparency\u201d bill, which aimed to cripple independent media groups and civil society organizations. Three weeks later, the Pride Parade of the LGBTQ community was held in the capital with record attendance, despite the government\u2019s ban.<\/p>\n
As Tisza\u2019s lead over Fidesz continued to grow in the polls, Gy\u00fcrk\u2019s position became precarious. \u201cGy\u00fcrk indicated to Orb\u00e1n that the election could not be won using his methods,\u201d said a source familiar with the events, who added that the campaign manager also informed Orb\u00e1n that he was resigning from his post. This aligned with Orb\u00e1n\u2019s own wishes, as by this point he was already considering not only a new campaign manager but also a completely different communication strategy.<\/p>\n
II. The Impulse campaign<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nViktor Orb\u00e1n among his colleagues on the summer of 2025 in Croatia Source: Orb\u00e1n Viktor \/ Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\nIn August 2025, Viktor Orb\u00e1n traveled to Croatia to retreat with his confidants and work out the details of Fidesz\u2019s election campaign. It was then that he posted the photo that has since become a meme: he and three colleagues, including Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n, are leaning over a tablet displaying a male lion in the national colors with the caption \u201cVictory Plan 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n
This photo clearly signaled that the duties of the campaign manager had been taken over by the prime minister\u2019s closest confidant, Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n, for whom a previously nonexistent position of political director was created within the government in 2021.<\/p>\n
However, before this decision was made, the prime minister had been pondering for some time whom to entrust with leading the campaign following Gy\u00fcrk\u2019s departure. During this process\u2014according to Fidesz sources\u2014J\u00e1nos L\u00e1z\u00e1r, the minister of construction, and P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3, the foreign minister, were also considered, but they did not accept the role. \u201cThe idea of bringing in someone from outside who could see things with fresh eyes was also raised,\u201d said a source close to the Orb\u00e1n government who participated in several meetings where Fidesz leaders discussed the matter with US and UK campaign strategists. However, these discussions did not lead to any results.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n was constantly presenting the prime minister with his ideas. He argued that the methods of Donald Trump\u2019s 2024 US presidential campaign should be incorporated into Fidesz\u2019s campaign. \u201cHe thought those tactics could be copied,\u201d said a source close to the government.<\/p>\n
He learned about these tactics because his positions brought him into contact with the US Republican world. The Mathias Corvinus Collegium, an educational institution with close ties to Fidesz, which he directed and was intended to train the government elite, for example, collaborated with several well-known figures from the pro-Trump subculture. In addition, he played an important role in organizing the CPAC Hungary conferences, which have become a meeting place for US Republicans and Fidesz politicians in recent years.<\/p>\n
Based on his impressions of the United States, Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n envisioned a campaign completely different from those Fidesz had run previously. According to a high-ranking government official in the Orb\u00e1n administration, Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n believed that the campaign strategy should not be built around major issues like migration, but rather that political battles should be fought on a daily basis, thereby \u201cdominating every moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
These ideas also appealed to the prime minister, who, according to several Fidesz politicians, spoke to the Fidesz parliamentary group around May-June of last year about Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n leading a so-called \u201cimpulse campaign.\u201d It became clear within Fidesz at that time that the political director would be appointed campaign manager, although the prime minister did not officially announce this until his speech in K\u00f6tcse last September. (Responding to our question about how Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n was selected for the position, Fidesz communication chief Havasi said \u201cthis is what we got.\u201d)<\/p>\n
The term \u201cimpulse campaign\u201d also referred to the increasingly prominent role social media was playing in Fidesz\u2019s campaign. Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2019s inner circle had concluded that Fidesz was at a disadvantage in only one area compared to the Tisza Party, which lacked an economic base and traditional media. That area was social media; in other words, P\u00e9ter Magyar was far more adept at managing Facebook than they were.<\/p>\n
According to a source working on the Fidesz campaign, the campaign team believed that Tisza\u2019s lead could be narrowed by strengthening the party\u2019s presence on social media.<\/p>\n
According to the source, the campaign staff did not meaningfully address the social discontent that had led to Tisza\u2019s rise. Instead, they simplified the issue to the fact that they were at a disadvantage in the online space.<\/p>\n
To close this gap, the group known as the Harcosok Klubja (Warriors\u2019 Club, HK), which supports Fidesz on social media, was created in the spring of 2025. It soon became clear, however, that they were unable to produce any meaningful results. According to the independent online outlet Telex\u2019s \u201cLike Championship\u201d\u2014which tracks politicians\u2019 Facebook activity\u2014in the weeks following its creation, the HK increased the sharing of posts by well-known Fidesz figures by only a few percentage points. This rate did not increase significantly in the following months either.<\/p>\n
This came as no surprise to Fidesz politicians, as there had already been problems with recruiting members. The party\u2019s constituency chairpersons were required to recruit 100 people in the first round, and then another 100 later on. According to the party headquarters\u2019 plans, they intended to eventually increase the membership to 1,000 per constituency, but the constituency chairpersons were already struggling to meet even the 200-member quota. One politician, for example, said that they only managed to meet the quota by adding one of their children and their 80-year-old neighbor to the group.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were deceiving ourselves,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
the politician said, noting that these people did not make any effort to spread Fidesz\u2019s messages.<\/p>\n
The campaign team also recognized this problem. Therefore, in July 2025, the prime minister announced in his speech in Tusn\u00e1df\u00fcrd\u0151 (Romania) that they would establish the so called Digit\u00e1lis Polg\u00e1ri K\u00f6r\u00f6k (Digital Civic Circles, DPK) for Fidesz supporters. \u201cThis rebranded the Warriors\u2019 Club,\u201d said a source working on the Fidesz campaign. According to him, this was necessary because the HK had increasingly become a subject of ridicule: phrases mocking the ruling party\u2019s comment culture began spreading as memes.<\/p>\n
Although the Fidesz voter base initially welcomed the DPKs with enthusiasm, this too proved not to be a silver bullet. By last fall, more and more people within the ruling party had come to realize that the DPKs weren\u2019t working. \u201cAnyone with eyes could see it, it was obvious from the articles in the \u2018Like Championship\u2019\u201d, said a source working on the campaign, referring to the fact that he, too, had read month after month on Telex that P\u00e9ter Magyar remained the Hungarian politician with the highest reach on Facebook, while the number of Fidesz figures among the political profiles generating the most interaction was steadily declining.<\/p>\n
According to Fidesz sources, the campaign team stood by the DPKs despite the problems. On the one hand, they believed that even this was better than ceding the online space entirely to the opposition; on the other hand, those involved in operating the system had a vested interest in maintaining it due to their own influence and positions.<\/p>\n
Starting last fall, Fidesz also sought to boost its online communication with the help of the party\u2019s individual candidates. The campaign team sent topics to the candidates on a daily basis so they would know what to post on their Facebook pages. In addition, they constantly provided the candidates with advice. Among other things, they were advised to create short, static reel videos lasting just a few seconds. \u201cThey also said that the lower the quality, the better it works,\u201d one candidate noted.<\/p>\n
Join the Direkt36 supporters\u2019 group and get insight into investigative journalism! Details \u2192<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Not all Fidesz candidates were able to identify themselves with the top-down online campaign. One candidate, for example, complained that in practice, the advice received from the campaign team often didn\u2019t work. The content and formats suggested by Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2019s team frequently received only a few dozen likes. According to the politician, this often made their social media efforts seem like \u201cpointless guessing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another constituency candidate pointed out that the campaign staff allowed them only minimal autonomy. As an example, they explained that the staff did not count posts about the opening of playgrounds toward the nearly ten mandatory daily posts, since those posts were not about Russia’s war against Ukraine. The politician brought this up with Alexandra Szentkir\u00e1lyi, who held a leading role in the campaign team, and she responded by saying,<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t win with a \u2018cute and fluffy\u2019 campaign.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
By this point, the campaign\u2019s focus had increasingly shifted toward the war.<\/p>\n
III. Threats instead of spending spree<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nThe Fidesz campaign’s focus was on the war Source: Orb\u00e1n Viktor \/ Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
On January 26 of this year, a video was posted on Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Facebook page indicating a shift in the campaign\u2019s direction. In it, the prime minister claimed that the statements made in recent days by members of the Ukrainian government criticizing him were part of \u201ca coordinated series of measures.\u201d According to him, the Ukrainians intended to interfere in the Hungarian elections through these actions. He therefore instructed foreign minister P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 to summon the Ukrainian ambassador.<\/p>\n
Although relations between the Hungarian and Ukrainian governments had been tense for years, the prime minister\u2014according to a source with insight into the Orb\u00e1n government\u2019s operations\u2014wanted to further escalate this conflict starting in January 2026. He attempted this because Fidesz\u2019s support had not grown in recent months, so he wanted to try a new approach.<\/p>\n
A few months earlier, the ruling party still had high hopes related to its spending spree. Last summer, the prime minister regularly spoke about how his government would provide a 3% subsidized mortgage to young people buying their first home and would gradually exempt mothers of two and three children from paying personal income tax. Last fall, Orb\u00e1n came up with further handouts: for example, he announced the introduction of a 14th-month pension and a preferential loan program for small businesses.<\/p>\n
These measures were carefully orchestrated. As part of this, Fidesz politicians claimed that Tisza would increase public burdens if it came to power.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey take away, we give,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
summarized a source familiar with Fidesz\u2019s internal workings, capturing the essence of the strategy. The groundwork was laid by articles published at government-close online news site Index in August and November of last year. Citing Tisza\u2019s alleged internal documents, these articles claimed that the party was preparing for significant tax hikes should it come to power. (Tisza called the cited documents forgeries and filed several lawsuits. The court ordered Index to publish a correction regarding its article from November, which the site complied with after the election. In it, Index acknowledged that the document presented did not contain Tisza\u2019s tax plans.)<\/p>\n
Although Fidesz officials felt confident last fall when they were promoting the \u201cTisza tax,\u201d by the end of the year it became clear that their strategy wasn\u2019t working. This was also indicated by a December survey by the 21 Research Center (21 Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpont), which found that Tisza was leading Fidesz by 17 percentage points among voters who were certain of their party choice. According to the research, the ruling party was unable to improve its popularity: while Fidesz\u2019s support began to grow slowly last summer, by the end of the year this momentum had completely evaporated.<\/p>\n
Fidesz\u2019s campaign team therefore began brainstorming in January of this year about what direction to take the campaign in for the remainder of the campaign period. \u201cIn other words, how to turn the situation into a Fidesz victory,\u201d said a source familiar with Fidesz\u2019s operations, who noted that Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g\u2014the Orb\u00e1n government\u2019s leading research institute\u2014played a decisive role in these considerations.<\/p>\n
Early this year, the campaign team drew inspiration from one of the research institute\u2019s surveys. This was a so-called thematic survey that examined which issues and problems concern voters in their daily lives. According to a source familiar with the details of the research, Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g found that the war in Ukraine ranks high on people\u2019s list of concerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat is why the decision was made in January 2026 to shift the focus back to Ukraine,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
said the source familiar with the events, who noted that the campaign team made this decision with the prime minister\u2019s approval. From that point on, messages about the dangers of war and the threat posed by Ukraine provided the ammunition for Fidesz\u2019s impulse campaign focusing on the online sphere.<\/p>\n
For example, at the end of February, Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 announced that the Hungarian government would block the \u20ac90 billion EU loan to be provided to Ukraine, as they claimed Ukraine was reluctant to restore the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Hungary with crude oil. Tensions between the two countries were heightened when, in early March, the Hungarian Tax Authority (NAV) and Center for Counter-Terrorism (TEK) raided a Ukrainian money transport passing through Hungary on suspicion of money laundering. The war hysteria was further fueled by an AI-generated video posted on the Budapest Fidesz Facebook page, in which a Hungarian little girl\u2019s father is shot in the head by an officer wearing clothes reminiscent of a Nazi uniform.<\/p>\n
While Fidesz politicians were busy scaring people with the Ukrainian threat, in mid-February pensioners received the first installment of their 14th-month pension. However, this did not play a prominent role in the campaign. \u201cIt wasn\u2019t even properly communicated; this issue practically faded away,\u201d said a source with insight into the Orb\u00e1n government\u2019s operations.<\/p>\n
For Fidesz politicians, however, it also became clear that the war topic was not really resonating with voters either. By early March, Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g had completed another internal survey containing data on all individual constituencies. This comprehensive survey concluded that Tisza would likely outperform the ruling party in the party-list vote. However, the researchers thought that Fidesz could still remain in power thanks to its strong performance in the individual constituencies.<\/p>\n
According to a source familiar with parts of the research, Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g outlined two possible scenarios for the expected election results. Under the optimistic estimate, even if Tisza wins the party list vote by a few percentage points, Fidesz could win 66 of the 106 individual constituencies. Thus, Fidesz would ultimately hold a total of 103\u2013115 seats in the 199-member Parliament, which would be sufficient to form a government.<\/p>\n
According to the other, more pessimistic estimate, Fidesz would win 54 individual constituencies, giving it a total of approximately 85\u201395 seats. Since this is not enough to form a government on its own, in this case Fidesz would have needed far right Mi Haz\u00e1nk as a coalition partner. According to a source familiar with Fidesz\u2019s internal workings, this was the worst-case scenario acknowledged within the party during the campaign. (In this regard, Havasi wrote that \u201cThere were as many surveys as stars on the sky.\u201d)<\/p>\n
Fidesz\u2019s precarious position was evident when they resorted to a previously unusual campaign tactic. On March 10, they announced that the prime minister would embark on a public tour of the country. With this move, Orb\u00e1n stepped out of his comfort zone; in previous years, he had campaigned only before select audiences, excluding the general public, but this time anyone could attend his events.<\/p>\n
However, the prime minister made it clear to a small circle of people that he was dissatisfied with the way the campaign was proceeding.<\/p>\n
IV. The collapse<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n<\/div>\n\nFanny Kaminski with M\u00e1t\u00e9 Kocsis in October 2025 Source: Kocsis M\u00e1t\u00e9 \/ Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
During the final month of the campaign, Orb\u00e1n continued to make optimistic and confident public statements about his party\u2019s prospects, but in private he appeared more uncertain and frustrated. In early March, for example, he complained to a senior Fidesz politician that he could not see the details of the campaign for the coming weeks. \u201cI\u2019m sure there are some plans, but I haven\u2019t been told about them yet,\u201d he told his conversation partner.<\/p>\n
The prime minister was thereby hinting that he was dissatisfied with the way Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n was managing the campaign. He was not alone in this; other Fidesz politicians also felt that the campaign manager was unable to keep things under control. Because of this, the pressure was mounting on Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n.<\/p>\n
The prime minister\u2019s political director had confidently taken over the campaign last summer. \u201cHe thought, like a military commander, that he understood the daily political landscape and would tell us where to strike,\u201d said a source working on the Fidesz campaign. One of the party\u2019s leading politicians noted that the prime minister had initially planned for Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n to effectively take over the campaign leadership, just as Andr\u00e1s Gy\u00fcrk had done previously.<\/p>\n
However, this did not happen. According to sources familiar with the inner workings of the campaign, Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2014known more as a theoretical thinker\u2014was ill-suited for the practical work associated with his new position.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe wasn\u2019t assertive enough; he was often indecisive,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
said one source, noting that the position of campaign manager\u2014which requires quick decisions and constant organization\u2014was less suited to Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n.<\/p>\n
As a result, mistakes occurred that were previously uncharacteristic of Fidesz campaigns. For example, early this year, the party\u2019s campaign newspaper was printed without the impress. Since election publications are required to indicate who is responsible for the content, the absence of the impress could have posed a legal problem for Fidesz. According to a source working on the campaign, the information required in the impress was subsequently added to the newspaper in the form of stickers or, in some places, handwritten notes.<\/p>\n
Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2019s situation was further complicated by the fact that the leaders of previous Fidesz campaigns found it difficult to accept being sidelined. Among them was, for example, G\u00e1bor Kubatov, who was responsible for signature collection and mobilization; although he remained a member of the campaign team alongside Gy\u00fcrk, this was by no means as influential position as before. Kubatov found it difficult to accept being sidelined and\u2014according to a source working on the campaign\u2014repeatedly harshly criticized Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n over the campaign\u2019s stumbles.<\/p>\n
Parallel to these developments, Fanny Kaminski\u2014who has a background in tabloid media and has been working on the prime minister\u2019s communications team for years\u2014became increasingly influential. Those close to the prime minister observed that Kaminski\u2019s voice was carrying more and more weight in Orb\u00e1n\u2019s inner circle.<\/p>\n
For example, a source who had a lengthy private conversation with the prime minister last year reported that Kaminski sat down with them several times during the conversation and asked how they could pose a trap to P\u00e9ter Magyar.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt seemed like Fanny was the political mastermind,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
the source said, referring to the fact that Kaminski was also involved in strategic planning.<\/p>\n
In addition, she became essential in organizing the prime minister\u2019s campaign events. One constituency candidate recounted that when he asked to attend Orb\u00e1n\u2019s campaign event held in his constituency, Kaminski did not allow it. \u00a0\u201cShe said this was the program of the boss,\u201d the politician said about the discussion with her.<\/p>\n
As a result, control increasingly slipped from Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n\u2019s hands. According to a high-ranking official in the Orb\u00e1n government, the role of the prime minister and Kaminski gradually increased and by March of this year they were effectively in charge of the campaign. (Responding to our questions, Kaminski called this \u201cfake news.\u201d)<\/p>\n
However, this did not lead to a significant turnaround; for example, the March 15 pro-government Peace March also failed to make a decisive impact. \u201cWe missed the momentum when we crushed the opposition on March 15, 2022,\u201d said a source working on the campaign, referring to the fact that four years ago it was clear that there were more people at the Fidesz event than at the opposition\u2019s. This time, that clear show of strength failed to materialize, leading to a numbers war between the parties over which rally had more attendees. (Based on a research led by the independent Sociologist Andrea Szab\u00f3, Tisza’s event clearly had the larger attendence.)<\/p>\n
Throughout the campaign, Fidesz struggled constantly with its inability to bring enough people to its events. \u201cIt was clear that Fidesz had run out of steam,\u201d said a former high-ranking official in the Orb\u00e1n government. \u00a0By this, he meant that, due to a lack of sufficient supporters for Fidesz rallies, government employees were repeatedly mobilized; and at the Peace March, according to the former government official, many participated only in exchange for full board and vouchers.<\/p>\n
The days following March 15 turned out even worse for Fidesz. On March 25, Direkt36 published a video in which Bence Szab\u00f3, a captain with the National Bureau of Investigation, spoke about how the Hungarian secret service had been covering for the mysterious figures working to undermine the Tisza Party. \u00a0On April 2, Army Captain Szilveszter P\u00e1link\u00e1s told Telex that the prime minister\u2019s son, G\u00e1sp\u00e1r Orb\u00e1n, was behind the government\u2019s planned military mission to Chad, and that he would consider it acceptable if Hungarian soldiers were to die during the mission in the African country.<\/p>\n
The fact that members of the armed forces had come forward publicly to make harsh allegations about corruption and abuse of power within the government caused bad optics. The campaign staff were also aware that these interviews posed a serious threat to them.<\/p>\n
For this reason, the prime minister commissioned another survey from Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g, this time based on face-to-face interviews. According to a source familiar with the data, the survey\u2014completed a few days before the election\u2014yielded surprising results: it showed Fidesz leading Tisza by two percentage points. This was in total contrast with the results of not only independent surveys but even with the findings of government-close N\u00e9z\u0151pont Institute\u2019s showing Tisza\u2019s increasing popularity. \u201cSz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g had greater influence; the Fidesz leadership tended to believe them,\u201d explained a source with insight into the party\u2019s operations.<\/p>\n
Even on election day on April 12, at the results-watching party held in downtown Budapest, Fidesz\u2019s leadership still put its trust in this Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g poll. They believed that, thanks to the high turnout, the less enthusiastic voter bases had mobilized during the campaign, and the result predicted by Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g would materialize.<\/p>\n
Join the Direkt36 supporters\u2019 group and get insight into investigative journalism! Details \u2192<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n
This hope was also reflected in the way the Fidesz leadership reacted on election night to the polls conducted by independent pollsters. \u201c<\/p>\n
They thought they were trying to delegitimize Fidesz\u2019s victory with these,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
said a source familiar with the events, referring to the polls published by the 21 Research Center and Medi\u00e1n after the polls closed, which showed a substantial lead for Tisza. Due to the unfavorable data for Fidesz, the government-close Center for Fundamental Rights released its projection at 7:30 p.m., showing a 2.5-percentage-point lead for Fidesz among voters who were certain of their choice. \u201cThis reflected the Fidesz leadership\u2019s expectations,\u201d said one source.<\/p>\n
Shortly thereafter, the ruling party\u2019s leaders realized that things were turning out worse than they had anticipated. One of Fidesz\u2019s constituency candidates called the prime minister before 8 p.m. to tell him that he was going to lose in his district. The politician knew this because by then it had become clear that he had lost in several smaller towns that he had won in 2022. Based on this, it was clear to him that he would lose the entire constituency.<\/p>\n
The prime minister replied that \u201cthe problem is nationwide.\u201d He also added that \u201cwe are in a very difficult situation.\u201d By then, Orb\u00e1n already knew they would lose the election, which, according to sources familiar with the events, he received angrily, raising his voice. Later, it also became clear to him that Fidesz had suffered a historic defeat. Compared to the results predicted by Sz\u00e1zadv\u00e9g, they were able to win only ten individual seats.<\/p>\n
Tisza secured a two-thirds majority, bringing Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s reign to an end after 16 years.<\/p>\n
(Andr\u00e1s Peth\u0151 contributed to this article.)<\/em><\/p>\n
Cover picture: P\u00e9ter Somogyi (szarvas) \/ Telex<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orb\u00e1n and his team remained confident until the last moment that they could stay in power. Following the election, they did not offer any explanation about the reasons of defeat to its supporters, which sparked a heated debate inside the party. This is Direkt36\u2019s article on the downfall of Fidesz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":13167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-telex.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[109,868,637,259],"ppma_author":[547,545],"aioseo_notices":[],"fimg_url":["https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fidesz_osszeomlas.jpg",2250,1500,false],"authors":[{"term_id":547,"user_id":25,"is_guest":0,"slug":"pufi","display_name":"Andr\u00e1s Szab\u00f3","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Szabo-Andras.png","url2x":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Szabo-Andras.png"},"author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"Szab\u00f3","first_name":"Andr\u00e1s","job_title":"","description":"[:hu]Andr\u00e1s nyolc \u00e9vig dolgozott \u00fajs\u00e1g\u00edr\u00f3k\u00e9nt az Orig\u00f3n\u00e1l, \u00e9s t\u00f6bb \u00e9vet elt\u00f6lt\u00f6tt az Indexn\u00e9l \u00e9s a vs.hu-n\u00e1l is. A Direkt36-n\u00e1l az orosz-magyar kapcsolatokkal, a Fidesz-k\u00f6zeli \u00fczleti k\u00f6r\u00f6k tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g\u00e9vel, \u00e9s az Orb\u00e1n-korm\u00e1ny d\u00f6nt\u00e9shozatal\u00e1nak folyamataival foglalkozik. 2011-ben G\u0151b\u00f6ly\u00f6s Soma-d\u00edjat, 2010-ben pedig Min\u0151s\u00e9gi \u00fajs\u00e1g\u00edr\u00e1s\u00e9rt d\u00edjat nyert, mindkett\u0151t az\u00e9rt a cikksorozat\u00e1\u00e9rt, amely a Gyurcs\u00e1ny-korm\u00e1ny egyik korrupci\u00f3gyan\u00fas ingatlanelad\u00e1s\u00e1t mutatta be.[:en]Andr\u00e1s worked eight years as a journalist at Origo, a then prestigious online news site, but also spent several years at Index and vs.hu news outlets. At Direkt36 he covers Russian-Hungarian relations, activities of business circles close to Fidesz, and political decision making processes of the Orb\u00e1n government. In 2011 he received the G\u0151b\u00f6ly\u00f6s Soma Award dedicated to investigative journalism in Hungary, and in 2010 he won the Quality Journalism Award, both for a series of articles that focused on a corruption case connected to the former Socialist-led government.[:]"},{"term_id":545,"user_id":29,"is_guest":0,"slug":"patrik","display_name":"Patrik Galavits","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Galavits-Patrik.png","url2x":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Galavits-Patrik.png"},"author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"Galavits","first_name":"Patrik","job_title":"","description":"[:hu]Az NKE-n szerzett igazgat\u00e1sszervez\u0151 \u00e9s nemzetk\u00f6zi igazgat\u00e1si diplom\u00e1val el\u0151bb multikn\u00e1l dolgozott, innen v\u00e1ltott az \u00fajs\u00e1g\u00edr\u00e1sra. Volt riporter \u00e9s m\u0171sorvezet\u0151 a Klubr\u00e1di\u00f3n\u00e1l, podcastot k\u00e9sz\u00edtett \u00e9s cikkeket \u00edrt az Azonnali.hu-n\u00e1l, majd a Forbes Magyarorsz\u00e1g munkat\u00e1rsak\u00e9nt dolgozott. 2019-ben \u00f6szt\u00f6nd\u00edjjal k\u00e9t h\u00f3napot a nyugat-n\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gi k\u00f6zszolg\u00e1lati m\u00e9di\u00e1n\u00e1l, a WDR-n\u00e9l t\u00f6lt\u00f6tt, 2022-ben az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok k\u00fcl\u00fcgyminiszt\u00e9riuma \u00e1ltal szervezett program, az IVLP r\u00e9sztvev\u0151je volt. T\u00f6bbsz\u00f6r jel\u00f6lt\u00e9k Min\u0151s\u00e9gi \u00dajs\u00e1g\u00edr\u00e1s\u00e9rt-d\u00edjra, 2021-ben az egykori balettint\u00e9zeti vissza\u00e9l\u00e9seket \u00e9s zaklat\u00e1sokat felt\u00e1r\u00f3 cikksorozat\u00e1\u00e9rt Transparency-Soma-d\u00edjra.[:en]Patrik graduated in Public and International Administration from the National University of Public Service. He started out as a private sector employee at multinational corporations before he ventured into journalism. He became a reporter and radio show host at Klubr\u00e1di\u00f3, then he produced a podcast and wrote articles at Azonnali.hu. Most recently he worked at Forbes Hungary. In 2019, he won a grant at WDR, a public broadcaster based in Germany. In 2022, he took part in an International Visitor Leadership Program for journalists, organized by the United States Department of State. He has been nominated for the Quality Journalism Award multiple times. His investigative article series involving abuses and sexual harassment at the Hungarian Dance Academy earned him a nomination for the Transparency Soma Award in 2021.[:]"}],"tag_names":[{"name":"Fidesz","slug":"fidesz"},{"name":"kubatov g\u00e1bor","slug":"kubatov-gabor"},{"name":"Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n","slug":"orban-balazs"},{"name":"Viktor Orb\u00e1n","slug":"orban-viktor"}],"category_names":[{"name":"Direkt36","slug":"direkt36"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13153"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13200,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13153\/revisions\/13200"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13153"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.direkt36.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=13153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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